The World Cup will fail, but not because of Saudi sportswashing

It's the format, stupid...

With all the uncertainty of a Russian election, Saudi Arabia was awarded the 2034 World Cup this week. As the only bidder, it stank. (Read Barney Ronay in the Guardian - great piece). But irrelevance is on the way. Here's why.

It's not human rights. It should be, but it's not. Saudi Arabia's likely appalling treatment of workers won't kill the spectacle. We all held our noses and got the memo for Qatar, so why should 2034 be any different? There will be more outrage, more scrutiny, but let's face it, the playbook is just to ride it out and wait for the football to distract everyone, and it's worked time and time again.

So why am I negative about the World Cup?

There are two things that kill sporting jamborees. Format, and hosting.

Let's start with hosting.

The next two World Cups will be played in a total of 9 countries. Yes, you read that correctly. 2026 will take place in US, Canada and Mexico; 2030 will be predominantly in Spain, Portugal and Morocco with 3 matches in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Geographically, Spain, Morocco and Portugal are an OK grouping. Canada and the US makes sense when you think that Toronto teams play in the US. Mexico is a long way from Canada. Adding in 'centenary' matches in South America makes sense for history but little else.

There's a narrative that a geographically-consistent and manageable country makes a good tournament. In a world of cheap airfares, global TV audience and international players scattered over the world, it's a bit less of a 'thing'.

However, there is a question of identity. Host nations make the mood. More hosts don't add to the atmosphere, they dilute it. 9 hosts over two Cups is an identity crisis. It smacks of pleasing everyone and no-one. "Italia 90" trips off the tongue. What will we call 2030?

However, the bigger issue is format.

Stop looking. The ideal World Cup format has been found. The 32-team format was introduced in France in 1998, and is perfect for several reasons.

1) 32 teams is the right level of filter for the overall number of Fifa countries (around 200). You need it to be hard to get to, but not impossible.

2) 32 divides perfectly into 8 groups of 4, top 2 from each group go to last-16, and so on. The only system that works just as well is a 16-team format, but that's too exclusive and small. (Or 64 teams, but that's far too big.) 32 is perfect.

Anything else sucks. 24 teams? Six groups of 4 requires the third place from some groups to go through, making the pool matches confusing. Or look at the Rugby World Cup, with it's awkward pools of 5 teams. Or the Cricket World Cup, which has become degraded to the point of farce with a format that changes almost every time, with no logic or sense and waaaay to many matches, most of which have no jeopardy.

3) The 32-team format means a good enough number of games. It’s 7 games to win it (3 pool matches and 4 in the knockout) or to get to the final. Overall, it's 64 matches. This is saturated, but not quite overkill. We can cope. There's enough content to produce some great games, some interesting match-ups, and a few duds, all over 32 days.

Overall, a World Cup format is all about clarity and meaningful matches. The current 32-team system is clear - fans don't have to be advanced statisticians to work out what's going on, and most matches are meaningful - ie there are very few 'dead rubbers'.

So, what's in store for Canada / Mexico / USA in 2026? Surely the 32-team system will ensure that.... oh. It's 48 teams. WTF?

Here's how that will 'work': teams will be split into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 and the 8 best third-placed teams progressing to a new round of 32. The total number of games played will increase from 64 to 104, to get to the final takes 8 games. The tournament will last 39 days.

None of these changes are good. In every respect, this is too much. There are too many teams to 'care' about. Third-placed teams going through means it's harder to get knocked out than progress to the next round, and there are 8(!) of them. A round-of-32 knockout will have too many one-sided games.

Let's compare to domestic football. The Premier League has 20 teams in it, and even engaged football fans might not always find it possible to recall all 20 teams and their top players. Now try that with 48 teams. 104 matches is the equivalent of the first 10 weeks of the Premier League. 39 days is more than 3 WEEKS longer than the Olympics.

This format could kill the product. Not at first, but eventually. The World Cup is about to become stretched far too thin, and it's an event that already struggles to maintain momentum. Don't forget, most of the world doesn't win. The global interest is sustained by neutrals, poeple who love the drama. Kill the drama, kill the Cup. And nothing kills drama quite like stretching things out.

By the time it gets to Saudi Arabia, we will have seen how this has played out.

The last 3 World Cups:

3 countries, 192 matches. 

The next 2 World Cups:

9 countries, 208 matches.

Enjoy!